The CPI came in under expectations across the board. I question shelter and medical components.

The Econoday consensus estimates for CPI were 0.3% for CPI-U, 0.2% for the core CPI, and +2.8% year-over-year.

Econoday Comments

  • Contraction in medical costs and apparel and only a marginal increase in food all held down consumer prices in August. Consumer prices rose only 0.2 percent with the ex-food ex-energy core up only 0.1 percent — both results 1 tenth lower than Econoday’s consensus.
  • A second month of decline for medical care, which makes up nearly 1/10 of the overall index, is a striking feature of the data. Year-on-year medical costs are up only 1.5 percent. A third straight drop in apparel prices, down 1.6 percent in the month and 1.4 percent on the year, and a 0.1 percent decline in recreation are also areas of price weakness. Food rose only 0.1 percent in the month with this yearly rate up only 1.4 percent.
  • Housing makes up more than 40 percent of the index and here the results do show some traction, up 0.3 percent in the month for a 2.9 percent rise from this time last year. Energy, which makes less than 1/10 of the index, is also pulling prices higher, up 1.9 percent in the month for a 10.2 percent yearly gain.

    • BLS Highlights

    Let’s tune into the BLS Consumer Price Index Report for August 2108 for actual results.

  • The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in July.
  • Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.
  • The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in August, the smallest monthly increase since April. Along with the shelter index, the indexes for airline fares and used cars and trucks were among those that increased in August.

    • CPI-U Month-Over-Month?

    Details

  • The energy index increased 1.9 percent in August; a 3.0-percent increase in the gasoline index was the largest factor, but the other energy component indexes also rose.
  • The shelter index increased 0.3 percent in August, the same increase as in July.
  • The food index rose only slightly in August, with the index for food at home unchanged.
  • An array of indexes declined, including apparel, medical care, communication, recreation, and personal care.
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