Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of October 15 And 22

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

       

Forecast

 Prior Observation

 Consensus

 

Week of October 15

       

October 15

       

Retail Sales – September

0.5%

0.1

0.6

 

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.4

0.3

0.4

 

Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas

0.4

0.2

0.4

           

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

20.0

19.0

19.3

 

Business Inventories – August

0.6%

0.6

0.5

           

October 16

       

Industrial Production – August

0.3%

0.4

0.2

 

Capacity Utilization

78.2

78.1

78.2

 

Manufacturing

0.3

0.2

0.2

           

NAHB Index

67

67

67

 

JOLTS – August

6.910

6.939

6.900

           

October 17

       

Housing Starts – September

1.230M

1.282

1.228

 

Building Permits

1.285

1.229

1.280

           

October 18

       

Initial Unemployment Claims

216K

214

215

 

Philadelphia Fed Survey

20.0

22.9

20.3

 

Leading Indicators

0.4%

0.4

0.5

           

October 19

       

Existing Home Sales – September

5.380M

5.340

5.300

           

Week of October 22

       

October 22

       

Chicago Fed National Activity Index

0.18

0.18

             

October 23

       

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

24

29

             

October 24

       

FHFA House Price Index – August

0.3%

0.2

   

New Home Sales – September

630K

629

             

October 25

       

Durable Goods Sales – September

-2.5%

4.4

   

International Trade in Goods – September

-74.0

-75.8

   

Wholesale Inventories – September (a)

0.3%

1.0

   

Pending Home Sale Index – September

104.2

104.2

             

October 26

       

GDP – Q3 (a)

3.2%

4.2

   

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – October (r)

99.0

99.0