Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of October 29 And November 5

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

       

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

 

Week of October 29

       

October 30

       

Personal Income – September

0.4%

0.3

0.4

           

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

28.1

28.1

28.0

           

October 30

       

S&P Case/Shiller Index – August

       

Twenty City M/M

0.4%

0.3

   

Twenty City M/M – SA

0.0

0.1

0.2

 

Twenty City Y/Y

6.0

5.9

6.0

           

Consumer Confidence

136.5

138.4

136.0

           

October 31

       

ADP Employment Report – October

195K

230.0

180

           

Employment Cost Index – Q3

0.8%

0.6

0.7

 

Employment Cost Index – Y/Y

2.8

2.8

             

Chicago PMI

60.2

60.4

60.0

           

November 1

       

Initial Unemployment Claims

212K

215

212

           

Productivity – Q3 (p)

2.2%

2.9

2,2

 

Unit Labor Costs

1.3

-1.0

1.2

           

PMI Manufacturing Index – October

55.9

55.9

55.9

 

ISM (Mfg) – October

59.3

59.8

59.1

 

Construction Spending – September

0.3%

0.3

             

November 2

       

Auto Sales* – September

17.2M

17.4

17.2

 

Car Sales

5.2

5.2

   

Truck Sales

12.0

12.2

   

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

                 

Nonfarm Payrolls – October

200K

134

190

 

Private

195

121

181

 

Core Private*

       

Manufacturing

22

18

14

 

Unemployment

3.7%

3.7

3.7

 

Average Workweek

34.5HR

34.5

34.5

 

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.3

0.2

 

*Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services

             

International Trade – September

-$53.6B

-53.2

53.4

           

Factory Orders – September

0.5%

2.3

0.4

 

Durable Goods Orders

0.8

     

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.2

0.2

             

Week of November 5

       

November 5

       

PMI Services Index

54.9

54.7

   

ISM Services – October

60.6

61.6

             

November 7

       

Consumer Credit – September

$17.0B

20.1

17.0

           

November 8

       

FMOC

2.125%

2.125

             

November 9

       

Producer Price Index – October

0.2%

0.2

0.2

 

PPI less food, energy and trade services

0.2

0.4

0.2

           

Wholesale Inventories – September

 

0.3

   

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (p)

98.0

98.6