Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of October 8 And15

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

       

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

 

Week of October 8

       

October 9

       

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index – September

108.8

108.8

108.0

           

October 10

       

Producer Price Index – September

0.2%

-0.1

0.2

 

PPI Core (less food, energy and trade services)

0.2

0.1

0.2

           

Wholesale Inventories – August

0.8%

0.8

0.8

           

October 11

       

Initial Unemployment Claims

207K

207

210

           

Consumer Price Index – September

0,2%

0.2

0.2

 

Core CPI

0.2

0.1

0.2

           

Treasury Budget – September

$62.0

-214.1

62.0

           

October 12

       

Export Prices – September

-0.1%

-0.1

0.2

 

Import Prices

0.2

-0.1

0.3

           

Michigan Consumer Sentiment – October (p)

99.5

100.1

99.0

           

Week of October 15

       

October 15

       

Retail Sales – September

0.5%

0.1

0.5

 

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.4

0.3

0.4

           

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

20.0

19.0

19.25

 

Business Inventories – August

0.6%

0.6

0.5

           

October 16

       

Industrial Production – August

0.3%

0.4

0.3

 

Capacity Utilization

78.2

78.1

78.1

 

Manufacturing

0.3

0.2

0.3

           

NAHB Index

67

67

67

           

October 17

       

Housing Starts – September

1.230M

1.282

1.237

 

Building Permits

1.285

1.229

1.280

           

October 18

       

Philadelphia Fed Survey

20.0

22.9

20.0

 

Leading Indicators

0.4%

0.4

0.5

           

October 19

       

Existing Home Sales – September

5.38M

5.340

5.35