Emerging Markets: Preview Of The Week Of Sept. 17-21

EM FX ended mixed in Friday, capping off an up and down week. RUB and TRY initially firmed on their respective rate hikes but gave back some of those gains heading into the weekend. Trade tensions are likely to remain high, as press reports suggest President Trump is pushing ahead with tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports even as high-level talks are planned. With US rates pushing higher, we think the backdrop for EM remains negative. 

Singapore reports August trade Monday. Non-oil Domestic Exports (NODX) are expected to rise 5.3% y/y vs. 11.8% in July. The economy remains somewhat sluggish, while CPI rose only 0.6% y/y in July. The MAS does not have an explicit inflation target, but low price pressures should allow it to remain on hold at its semi-annual policy meeting in October. 

Turkey reports July IP Monday, which is expected to rise 1.2% y/y vs. 3.2% in June. The economy slowed sharply in Q2 and data in Q3 should show an even deeper slowdown. Indeed, with rates hiked again last week and likely to head higher, we think a recession is becoming much more likely. The next policy meeting is October 25, and we suspect the bank would prefer to stand pat. Much will depend on the lira. 

Israel reports August trade and Q2 current account data Monday. Early Sunday, it reported Q2 GDP growth at 1.8% SAAR vs. 2.0% in Q1. CPI rose 1.2% y/y in August, near the bottom of the 1-3% target range. With the economy still fairly robust, inflation is likely to continue moving towards the 2% target. No change is expected at the next policy meeting October 8. However, we think a hike is possible at the next meeting on November 26. 

National Bank of Hungary meets Tuesday and is expected to keep rates steady at 0.9%. CPI rose 3.4% y/y in both July and August. While this is the highest since January 2013, inflation remains within the 2-4% target range. As long as the forint remains relatively firm, the central bank is likely to retain its ultra-dovish stance.