After the EU rebuked Theresa May’s Chequers proposal, the chance of a hard Brexit rose sharply. The EU is now preparing.

The Financial Times reports EU Prepares Five-Day Plan in Case of No-Deal Brexit.

Similarly, Bloomberg says EU Envoys to Discuss Emergency Preparations.

Neither article said much of anything beyond the title and subtitle.

Eurointelligence had much more interesting commentary.

As a no-deal Brexit emerges as a serious possibility on the political horizon, the EU-side is making no secret of ramping up its own contingency preparations.

The political difficulty here for the EU side is clear. Make the contingency planning for a hard Brexit too comprehensive and too conspicuous, and you feed into a dynamic where no-deal is established in the mind of the public as a workable option —and perhaps even as the best or only realistic one. This would then reduce the public appetite for politically difficult concessions necessary for a final deal.

Does Planning For No-Deal Make No-Deal More Likely?

Here are the pros and cons.

  • If we plan for a no-deal we can diffuse all the “lurid stories about a break-down of air traffic, empty foodshelves in supermarkets and a shortage of essential medicines as a consequence of a crash-Brexit” that currently permeate the UK airwaves. This will take the wind out the fearmonger’s sails.
  • If we discuss the alleged disaster scenarios enough, both sides will work towards a deal to prevent that disaster. After all, government plans seldom achieve what they are supposed to.

    • Right now, argument number one seems to have the upper hand. If the EU will not budge, May can always wash her hands an moan at the stubbornness of the EU.

    She might be able to give in on minor points, as might the EU, but the recent meeting in Salzburg where the EU thoroughly rebuked May’s Chequers proposal shoved both sides into a corner will take a lot of time to heal, and the clock is ticking.

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