As the two-day EU Summit drew to a close Thursday, it would seem Brexit is still very much a work in progress. Although nothing was cemented either way – deal or no deal – officials from both parties expressed optimism and announced agreement over a few key issues. One such issue was the possibility of an extension for the transition period. But neither the British Pound nor the Euro, seem to be inspired by the progress made the past few days.
European Council President Donald Tusk and UK Prime Minister Theresa May reiterated their willingness to accept an extension, which was later confirmed by comments from European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. Juncker said “extending the transition period will probably happen”.
At this time, neither side has commented on the exact length of the extension period. Based on media reports, it would appear likely that the transition window would be pushed back from December 2020 to December 2021 at a minimum.
One other issue laid to rest during the summit was Gibraltar. The Prime Minister of Spain announced an agreement with the UK in the closing hours of the meeting but did not issue the exact details. Traders should keep expectations low for a reaction in FX markets when the details are announced, however, as Gibraltar is not considered a major sticking point at present time.
While clear progress was made on some minor fronts, some larger issues remain contentious. The border between Ireland and Northern Ireland is still hotly debated, and UK PM May expressed an unwillingness to accept the EU’s proposal on the matter. Similarly, German Chancellor Angela Merkel cited progress but claimed it is insufficient to act as grounds for another Brexit meeting. She later said the EU-27 has a very high level of unity on Brexit, suggesting the two sides have reached a deadlock.
To this end, the November summit was canceled (which at the surface level is a negative, but can always be rescheduled if enough progress is made over the coming weeks).
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