Forex Forecast: Pairs In Focus – Sunday, September 2

The difference between success and failure in Forex trading is very likely to depend upon which currency pairs you choose to trade each week, and not on the exact trading methods you might use to determine trade entries and exits. Each week I am going to analyze fundamentals, sentiment and technical positions in order to determine which currency pairs are most likely to produce the easiest and most profitable trading opportunities over the next week. In some cases it will be trading the trend. In other cases it will be trading support and resistance levels during more ranging markets.

Big Picture September 2

In my previous piece last week, I forecast that the best trades would be short GBP/USD, and bullish on the S&P 500 Index. These trades finished indifferently: while the GBP/USD rose by by 0.82% the S&P 500 Index also rose by 1.02%, producing an average win of 0.10%.

Last week saw a rise in the relative value of the Swiss Franc, and a fall in the relative value of the Australian Dollar.

Little happened in the Forex market last week, except for a stronger than expected U.S. Preliminary GDP print of 4.2%, and sentiment coming to see a greater likelihood of a Brexit deal between the U.K. and the E.U.

Fundamental Analysis & Market Sentiment

Fundamental analysis tends to support the U.S. Dollar, as American economic fundamentals continue to look relatively strong. Sentiment seems to have given the Dollar a boost over the week, but trade war fears remain and continue to boost other safe havens such as the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen periodically.

The week ahead is likely to be busy as it is the first week of September which is usually a time when markets come back to life after a typically dull August. The week will probably be dominated by the upcoming U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls data release at the end of the week. There is also a lot of important Australian, Canadian, and British data due for release.

Technical Analysis

U.S. Dollar Index