The GDPNow forecast is much stronger than Nowcast. The BEA will report GDP on Oct 26. Watch real final sales.
As has been typical for two quarters, there is a wide gap between the GDPNow forecast of 3.9% and the Nowcast forecast of 2.1%.
Once again, Nowcast is likely way too low.
Watch Real Final Sales
GDPNow is projecting a huge inventory build in the third quarter. Its base forecast is 3.9% but real final sales, the bottom line estimate of GDP is only 1.6%.
If accurate, an inventory build will add 2.3 percentage points to GDP at a time when sales and housing are in the midst of a slide.
There are a few more reports next week, so expect the GDPNow estimate to change a bit.
The BEA will report a number before Nowcast updates its estimate, a peculiar way of doing business even though I do not believe they take advantage.
I will post a guess on Thursday. The GDP report is due Friday.
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