ISM Manufacturing Index: Expansion In October

Today the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for October. The latest headline Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 57.7 percent, a decrease of 2.1 percent from 59.8 the previous month. Today’s headline number was below the Investing.com forecast of 59.0 percent.

Here is the key analysis from the report:

“The October PMI® registered 57.7 percent, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from the September reading of 59.8 percent. The New Orders Index registered 57.4 percent, a decrease of 4.4 percentage points from the September reading of 61.8 percent. The Production Index registered 59.9 percent, a 4 -percentage point decrease compared to the September reading of 63.9 percent. The Employment Index registered 56.8 percent, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the September reading of 58.8 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 63.8 percent, a 2.7-percentage point increase from the September reading of 61.1 percent. The Inventories Index registered 50.7 percent, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points from the September reading of 53.3 percent. The Prices Index registered 71.6 percent, a 4.7-percentage point increase from the September reading of 66.9 percent, indicating higher raw materials prices for the 32nd consecutive month.”

Here is the table of PMI components.

The chart below shows the Manufacturing Composite series, which stretches back to 1948. The eleven recessions during this time frame are indicated along with the index value the month before the recession starts.

For a diffusion index, the latest reading of 57.7 is its twenty-sixth consecutive month of expansion. What sort of correlation does that have with the months before the start of recessions? Check out the red dots in the chart above.

Here is a closer look at the series beginning at the turn of the century.