NFIB Small Business Survey: September Update

The latest issue of the NFIB Small Business Economic Trends came out this morning. The headline number for September came in at 107.9, down 0.9 from the previous month. The index is at the 99th percentile in this series. Today’s number came in below the Investing.com forecast of 108.9.

Here is an excerpt from the opening summary of the news release.

A record net 37 percent of owners reported raising overall compensation in hopes of hiring and retaining employees in the tight labor market, according to NFIB’s monthly jobs report, released today. This surpasses the previous record of a net 35 percent in May 2018. The competition for qualified workers is pushing up compensation as there are more job openings than job seekers.

“There is extraordinary competition for workers in this historically tight labor market. Small business owners are investing more in their employees to attract and keep qualified workers,” said NFIB President and CEO Juanita D. Duggan. “Thanks to the recent tax cuts and regulatory reforms, owners are able and comfortable investing more in their employees and businesses which further strengthens the economy.”

The first chart below highlights the 1986 baseline level of 100 and includes some labels to help us visualize that dramatic change in small-business sentiment that accompanied the Great Financial Crisis. Compare, for example, the relative resilience of the index during the 2000-2003 collapse of the Tech Bubble with the far weaker readings following the Great Recession that ended in June 2009.

Here is a closer look at the indicator since the turn of the century. We are just below the all-time high.

The average monthly change in this indicator is 3.0 points. To smooth out the noise of volatility, here is a 3-month moving average of the Optimism Index along with the monthly values, shown as dots.

Here are some excerpts from the report.