The New Zealand Dollar has continued to trade just below multi-month slope resistance with the initial October opening-range in focus heading into the close. Here are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the NZD/USD charts.
NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART
Technical Outlook: In my Weekly Technical Outlook on the New Zealand Dollar, our ‘bottom line’ noted that Kiwi was, “trading just above key confluence support at 6453/88 and IF prices are going to post some sort of near-term recovery this would be the spot.” Kiwi registered a low at 6424 just two days later before reversing sharply back toward the upper parallel of the pitchfork formation we’ve been tracking off the yearly highs.
Despite the volatility, NZD/USD continues to trade within the confines of the October opening-range and we’ll be looking for the break to offer further guidance on our medium-term directional bias. Critical daily support rests at 6453/65 – a region defined by the 2015 low-week close, the yearly low-day close and the 78.6% retracement of the October advance. A topside breach of the descending pitchfork is needed to suggest a more significant low is in place.
NZD/USD 240MIN PRICE CHART
Notes: I’m working with a slightly different slope on the intraday chart but the same levels are reflected. Looking for support ahead of 6496 if price is indeed heading higher. Near-term resistance stands at 6555 backed by 6595 with a breach above 6624/40 needed fuel the next leg higher. Weakness sub-6453 would risk considerable losses with subsequent support targets seen at the yearly low at 6424 and the 2016 low at 6347.
Bottom line: The immediate range in focus heading into the close of the month is 6453-6640 – look for the break for guidance. From a trading standpoint, I’ll favor fading weakness while within this near-term structure ultimately targeting a breach of this multi-month descending formation. Look for an early-week low near the lower parallel IF this is going to work. We’re light on Kiwi data this week with lots of US event risk on tap- ending with Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. Tread lightly here into the monthly open.
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