Oil Mania Redux

By now, late September of 2018, it has become increasingly evident that something big is about to happen. What exactly that may be is anyone’s guess. But, whatever it is, we suggest you prepare for it now…before it’s too late.

Several weeks ago, if you hadn’t heard, an undisclosed rich guy enthusiastically bid up and then bought Norman Rockwell’s portrait of John Wayne for a cool $1.49 million at the 12th Annual Jackson Hole Art Auction. According to auction coordinator Madison Webb, “There was a really positive energy in the room.”

Indeed, it takes a lot of really positive energy – and a healthy bank account – to shell out that sum of money for a painting of “The Duke.” Still, positive energy, like good weather, can quickly turn negative. Soon enough, we suppose, the purchaser’s excitement will retreated to a serious case of buyer’s remorse.

Of course, we could be wrong. The buyer could have a special liking for old John Wayne movies. Perhaps he’s a collector of Norman Rockwell paintings.  Or maybe he won the lottery and is compelled to burn through his winnings in odd and outlandish ways.

What this has to do with anything is a bit of a stretch. But art, if this qualifies as such, offers a rough barometer of social mood. Moreover, when the price for a painting of a 20th-century actor that’s pretending to be a 19th-century character of American nostalgia sells at nearly a million and a half bucks, we suspect something more is at work.

Sanctions and Bottlenecks

Take oil, for instance. The price of WTI crude oil’s above $70 a barrel. Brent crude’s over $80 a barrel. Aside from a brief price spike at the beginning of summer, oil hasn’t been this high since its price collapsed in late 2014. What gives?

To begin, oil markets are notoriously cyclical. Production and consumption rates often crisscross in short succession. Oil prices swing wildly to both the upside and the downside as supplies shift from gluts to shortages and back again. But that’s not all…