Revisions Save An Overhyped Employment Report As Jobs Rise By 134,000

Some expected 300,000 or more jobs in today’s report. Instead, payrolls rose by 134,000. Revisions substantial.

Initial Reaction

The consensus estimate was 180,000 jobs. The ADP estimate was 230,000, and based on ISM reports, I saw talk of 300,000.

Today’s establishment survey shows jobs rose by 134,000 with only 121,000 private jobs.

The hype would have been laughable except for positive revisions.

Job Revisions

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up from +147,000 to +165,000, and the change for August was revised up from +201,000 to +270,000.

Let’s dive into the details in the BLS Employment Situation Summary, unofficially called the Jobs Report.

BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance

Nonfarm Payroll: +134,000 – Establishment Survey

Employment: +420,000 – Household Survey

Unemployment: -270,000 – Household Survey

Involuntary Part-Time Work: +263,000 – Household Survey

Voluntary Part-Time Work: -317,000 – Household Survey

Baseline Unemployment Rate: -0.2 to 3.7% – Household Survey

U-6 unemployment: +0.1 to 7.5% – Household Survey

Civilian Non-institutional Population: +224,000

Civilian Labor Force: +150,000 – Household Survey

Not in Labor Force: +70,000 – Household Survey

Participation Rate: flat at 62.7– Household Survey

Divergences

Last month employment as measured by the household survey fell by 423,000. This month it rose by 420,000. The two-month total is still negative.

Employment Report Statement

The unemployment rate declined to 3.7 percent in September, and total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 134,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing.

Unemployment Rate – Seasonally Adjusted