SPX Kiss Of Death

VIX probed slightly higher than the previous week on Monday, but couldn’t hold its altitude, closing beneath its weekly Cycle Top at 20.21. The Cycles Model weakness discussed last week came into play through Friday. However, this weekend is an important Cycle Pivot that may allow the rally to resume through the end of the month.  

(Crain’sChicagoBusiness)  here’s another fight brewing over market data fees. Clients contend they’re too high, the SEC is mulling a crackdown—and the exchange is pushing back.

“Angry Chris” Concannon was on full display at a Securities & Exchange Commission meeting in Washington recently to discuss stock market data fees.

Concannon, president of Cboe Global Markets, a major U.S. stock and stock option exchange, described himself that way in a futile attempt to defuse a public battle with clients over what they called “greedy” and “unconscionable” fees.

SPX retests the trendline

SPX retested its 2.5-year trendline, closing beneath it and maintaining its sell signal. It also closed well beneath its weekly Long-term support at 2764.81. Technicians call this action “The Kiss of Death.”  The Cycles Model now implies a three-week decline that may test its weekly Cycle Bottom at 2084.48.

(Bloomberg)  Halloween’s here and for investors, October has been all trick and no treat.

The S&P 500’s decision to dress up like Niagara Falls for the holiday isn’t the only scary sight across global markets, according to analysts.

A compilation of Wall Street’s ghoulish graphs showcases concern about the impact of rising rates, the longevity of the U.S. business cycle, the state of the world’s second-largest economy, and the current swoon in stocks. Here are the charts that give the professionals nightmares.

NDX really retests Long-term resistance

NDX made a new low on Monday and spent the rest of the week regaining the losses. It rose back to its Long-term resistance, but could not overcome it, closing beneath it. NDX remains on a sell signal. The Presidential Cycle usually finds a bottom in October of mid-term elections. However, the Cycles Model suggest further declines through the Month of November.

(CNBC)  The Nasdaq closed up 1.75 percent Thursday, starting November on an upswing. But as Apple slid 7 percent after hours, briefly dipping below its $1 trillion market cap, the Nasdaq lost most of its gains from the day, slipping 1.72 percent in postmarket trading.

Several other tech giants saw notable after-hours drops after Apple reported earnings, including Amazon (down 1.5 percent), Facebook(down 1 percent) and Netflix (down about 2 percent).

Although it beat analyst expectations on revenue and earnings per share, Apple missed estimates for iPhone sales, reporting 46.89 million compared to analyst predictions of 47.5 million according to FactSet and StreetAccount.

Apple projected $89 billion to $93 billion revenue for its first quarter, just shy of analyst estimates of $93.02 billion.

High Yield Bond Index retesting resistance

The High Yield Bond Index has made a new low before a retest of the long-term trendline. It is on a sell signal. High yield bonds are also anticipating further weakness through the end of the November.

(Bloomberg)  It’s the worst October for U.S. junk bonds since 2008.

This month is typically a good one for high yield, but October is on track for the biggest loss since December 2015 as equity volatility, earnings and trade worries weigh.

U.S. high yield’s 1.81 percent drop so far this month is exceeded only by the 1.87 percent decline for global high yield, making it the second-worst performer of all the main bond market indexes. October has been positive for high-yield bonds in every year since 2008, when the market tumbled almost 16 percent in the month.