The good news is:
The bottom, when it is reached, will be easy to identify.
?The Negatives
Last week began with a sharp rally.
Sudden sharp rallies in bear markets are the complement to the sudden sharp declines seen in bull markets
There was a little warning from new lows which had declined a little from their extremes.
The first chart covers the past 6 months showing the Nasdaq composite (OTC) in blue and a 10% trend of Nasdaq new lows (OTC NL) in brown. OTC NL has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so diminishing numbers of new lows move the indicator upward (up is good).
There was a brief period of diminishing new lows last week, but it did not last.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and NY NL, in blue, has been calculated with NYSE data.
The pattern is similar to the chart above.
The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the SPX in red and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of NYSE new highs divided by new highs + new lows (NY HL Ratio), in blue. Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solid at the 50%, neutral, level.
At 7.1% NY HL Ratio is about as low as it can go.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the OTC in blue and OTC HL Ratio, in red, has been calculated with NASDAQ data.
Ditto OTC HL Ratio.
The secondaries are still leading the way downward so there appears to be room left on the downside.
The Positives
We are approaching one of the seasonally strongest times of the year.
Seasonality
Next week includes the 5 trading days prior to the 4th Friday of October during the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle. The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis for that period.
OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2018 while SPX data runs from 1953 to 2018. There are summaries for both the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined. Prior to 1953, the market traded 6 days a week so that data has been ignored.
Average returns for the coming week have been much stronger during the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle than other years.
Leave A Comment