The good news is:
We are entering the strongest period of the 4 year Presidential Cycle.
?The Negatives
New lows were at or near-crash levels every day last week.
The first chart covers the past 6 months showing the Nasdaq composite (OTC) in blue and a 10% trend of Nasdaq new lows (OTC NL) in brown. OTC NL has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so diminishing numbers of new lows move the indicator upward (up is good).
When a low has been reached, OTC NL will move sharply upward.
That is not happening here.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and NY NL, in blue, has been calculated with NYSE data.
The pattern is similar to the chart above, no sign of a bottom.
The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the SPX in red and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of NYSE new highs divided by new highs + new lows (NY HL Ratio), in blue. Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solid at the 50%, neutral, level.
Last week I said this indicator was about as low as it could go at 7.1%, it closed Friday at 3.2%, less than half its value on the previous Friday.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the OTC in blue and OTC HL Ratio, in red, has been calculated with NASDAQ data.
The current level of 5.2% is the lowest since 2008.
The Positives
The market is oversold and we are entering the seasonally strongest period of the 4 year Presidential Cycle.
Seasonality
Next week includes the last 3 trading days of October and the first 2 trading days of November during the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle. The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis for that period.
OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2018 while SPX data runs from 1928 to 2018. There are summaries for both the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined.
Average returns for the coming week have been very strong by all measures.
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