Scottish poet Robert Burns aptly penned the famous phrase: “The best laid schemes o’ mice an’ men/Gang aft a-gley.” (commonly adapted as “The best laid plans of mice and men often go awry.”). How right he was.

History has shown time and time again that the only 100% predictable outcome to any given strategy is that, when implemented, things will not go 100% according to plan. The Titanic’s maiden voyage. Napoleon’s invasion of Russia. The Soviet’s 1980 Olympic hockey dream team. The list of unexpected outcomes is legion.

Dwight D. Eisenhower, the Supreme Commander of the Allied Expeditionary Forces in Europe during WWII, went as far as to say: “In preparing for battle, I’ve always found that plans are useless but planning is indispensable.”

This wisdom very much applies to anyone seeking safety from disaster. Whether preparing for a natural calamity, a financial market crash, an unexpected job loss, or the “long emergency” of resource depletion — you need to take prudent steps now, in advance of a crisis; BUT you also need to be mentally prepared for elements of your preparation to unexpectedly fail when you need them most.

Here are two recent events that drive that point home.

Lessons From Hurricane Florence

A family member of mine lives in Wilmington, NC, which received a direct hit last month from Hurricane Florence. Being an avid “prepper” who has lived on the east coast all his life (i.e., well-experienced with the late summer/early autumn hurricane season), he was MUCH more geared up for this storm than his neighbors. He also had nearly a week’s advance notice to top off his preparations as the media tracked Florence’s trajectory since its formation off of the west coast of Africa.

But as ready as he thought he was, he still found he was vulnerable in places he hadn’t anticipated.

While he and his family made it through the storm all right in the end, he experienced numerous failures in his preps throughout. Here are just a few:

  • Climate-related corrosion — despite careful efforts to store his emergency gear responsibly, he discovered the humid North Carolina climate had ruined several pieces of equipment. The alkaline batteries used in the emergency radios had exploded, corroding the terminals and rendering the devices useless. Similarly, the wick controls on several kersosene lanterns had rusted to the point of inoperability. The lesson here? If you live in an area that experiences excessive conditions (heat/cold/humidity/mold/etc) for even part of the year, you must check your gear regularly to ensure it’s still functional.
  • Incorrect assumptions — Several components did not work as expected when deployed. The “universal” gas line purchased in advance to connect his collection of camping stoves to a large propane tank simply didn’t fit. Similarly, his Gas Tapper siphon failed to work, which he was hoping could help neighbors refuel their generators by transferring gas from their cars. But in every case but one, it simply didn’t work. The takeaway? If you haven’t tested a specific piece of gear in advance, under non-emergency conditions, assume it won’t work when you need it.
  • Random fate — Sometimes, as Burns said, plans just go awry. In this case, a diesel truck had been configured to act as a generator and provide electricity to key appliances (freezer, fridge, etc) should the power go out for a prolonged period — which it did. But as random fate would have it, the starter motor failed. The truck sat there like a big useless brick during the blackout. Fortunately, there was another vehicle in the garage set up similarly that did work. The lesson? Always, always have backups in place for any resources that perform an essential function.
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