What Do They Know?

The Steering Committee for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned last week that tighter financial conditions globally are a risk. A bit late perhaps, but that’s how these things go. You can tell matters are serious when Economists are shaken out from their global growth slumber. The IMF wants everyone to know that this could be a danger to not just Emerging Market economies but also those in the developed world including the US, Europe, and even Japan.

The Bank of Japan’s leader, Haruhiko Kuroda, for one isn’t worried. The words “monetary” and “tightening” like monetary loosening are always associated with the central bank for these guys. Kuroda therefore immediately connects the IMF warning with the hawk Jay Powell.

It’s good that the United States is normalising monetary policy, because the economy is growing and inflation is already near (the Fed’s) target.

Kuroda’s right that rate hikes should be a welcome end to an otherwise disastrous decade. But there’s one key assumption buried underneath forever unchallenged: Federal Reserve officials think the economy is growing and inflation is already near target, and that’s why they are raising rates. What if they are wrong not just on the economy but also this global tightening so upsetting everyone?

Few contemplate the possibility. Convention remains fixed in this regard; central bankers are the best and brightest, therefore if they say so then who is anyone to argue?

They get away with this via mathematics. If you try to debate the point you end up discussing complex statistical theories instead. People are afraid of the math, politicians most of all, and Economists know it.

Nowhere is this more evident than in Japan. In January 2013, the central bank with Kuroda leading the charge announced that monetary policy would no longer be satisfied with 1% CPI inflation as a goal, it would actively target 2% CPI inflation. Three months later, QQE was launched with all this in mind based on tens of thousands of statistic simulations that said: